Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[lashmar]

If someone can double check them because math’s isn’t my thing at all and I’m bound to have made at least one huge cock up.

Mild Problems
•   Fever (up to 1 person out of 6)
•   Mild rash (about 1 person out of 20)
•   Swelling of glands in the cheeks or neck (rare)
If these problems occur, it is usually within 7-12 days after the shot. They occur less often after the second dose.

Moderate Problems
•   Seizure (jerking or staring) caused by fever (about 1 out of 3,000 doses)
•   Temporary pain and stiffness in the joints, mostly in teenage or adult women (up to 1 out of 4)
•   Temporary low platelet count, which can cause a bleeding disorder (about 1 out of 30,000 doses)
We’ll start with the mild problems.

6 doesn’t go into 20 so we need to make the figures out of 60 because that’s the first number they meet at.

10 out of 60 and 3 out of 60 is what we now have. Add them together and we get 13 out of 120. 13 into 120 (120 ÷ 13) is 9.23 so we round that down to 9. Now the figures show you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting either a fever or a mild rash.


Now the moderate problems.

The odds of getting either a seizure (1 in 3000) or Joint pain (1 in 4):

3000 (the number of people not going to have seizures for every ONE that does) ÷ 4 (the number of not getting joint pain for every ONE that does) = 750.

750 ÷ 5 = 150; 150 is the number you get when you take the two smallest numbers (in this case 1 and 4) and add them together (5) and then divide 750 (the odds of experiencing either seizures or Joint pain to 1).

30,000 (the chances of developing a bleeding disorder) ÷ 750 (the chances of not developing either seizures or joint pain) = 40.
150 ÷ 40 = 3.75 (rounded up to 4).

So you have a 1 in 4 chance of experiencing Seizure, joint pain or Bleeding disorder (not sure if that includes Hemophilia).

4 doesn’t go into 9 (the figure we came at from experiences mild problems) so we need to make them figures out of 36.

You now have a 4 in 36 chance of developing the mild problems and a 9 in 36 chance of developing then moderate problems.

4 + 9 = 13 and 36 + 36 = 72. 72 ÷ 13 = 5.53 (rounded up to 6). Now the figures show you have a 1 in 6 chance of developing something.


I must have made a fuck up somewhere because they are stupidly high. I used these figures mainly because they had the best numbers with them so it was easier to work with on a first run and easier to point out any mistakes because the numbers weren’t huge either.


Initial figures:

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#mmr

[Day_Tripper]

I must have made a fuck up somewhere because they are stupidly high

I don't think so.  I think the side effects of vaccines are much higher than they want people to believe.  Remember also that most likely these numbers are conservative.  I suspect the side effects are much higher than what they state.

[lashmar]

I must have made a fuck up somewhere because they are stupidly high

I don't think so.

But was my maths right? If so that would be a first.  

Remember also that most likely these numbers are conservative.  I suspect the side effects are much higher than what they state.

As I said. Use there own figures against them. Even if they are under-done it doesn't matter because we can't be accused of `over egging the cake`.


Edit: Assuming I didn't fuck up you have a 1 in 9 chance of developing mild problems and a 1 in 4 chance of experiencing Seizure, joint pain or Bleeding disorder.

Personally I would have thought Joint pain was in the `Mild` category but that's just me. Either which way they are the figures we need to show people not the nonsense crap people are told.

[Day_Tripper]

But was my maths right? If so that would be a first.

Well, here is where I'd disagree with you.

6 doesn’t go into 20 so we need to make the figures out of 60 because that’s the first number they meet at.

10 out of 60 and 3 out of 60 is what we now have. Add them together and we get 13 out of 120. 13 into 120 (120 ÷ 13) is 9.23 so we round that down to 9. Now the figures show you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting either a fever or a mild rash.

Why are you adding 60 to 60?  If 10 out of 60 get a fever and 3 out of 60 get a rash, that is still the same 60 people.  So, 13 out of those 60 people get a fever and/or a rash, not 13 out of 120.  So 60 divided by 13 is 4.6.  That is about 20% of the population who get these reactions.

Personally I would have thought Joint pain was in the `Mild` category but that's just me. Either which way they are the figures we need to show people not the nonsense crap people are told.

Not if it lasts a lifetime.  Arthritis is an auto-immune disease and one of the causes is vaccines.  I wonder if this "joint pain" is actually referring to arthritis but they just don't want to call it what it is.  I also see that they claim this joint pain is "temporary".

[lashmar]

6 doesn’t go into 20 so we need to make the figures out of 60 because that’s the first number they meet at.

10 out of 60 and 3 out of 60 is what we now have. Add them together and we get 13 out of 120. 13 into 120 (120 ÷ 13) is 9.23 so we round that down to 9. Now the figures show you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting either a fever or a mild rash.

Why are you adding 60 to 60? If 10 out of 60 get a fever and 3 out of 60 get a rash, that is still the same 60 people.

But that only works if they go together. Not everyone who get's a rash will get a fever and not everyone who get's a fever will get a rash.  They aren’t counting them as if they go together so I counted them as single problems so my calculations were correct.

Personally I would have thought Joint pain was in the `Mild` category but that's just me. Either which way they are the figures we need to show people not the nonsense crap people are told.

Not if it lasts a lifetime.  Arthritis is an auto-immune disease and one of the causes is vaccines.  I wonder if this "joint pain" is actually referring to arthritis but they just don't want to call it what it is.  I also see that they claim this joint pain is "temporary".

True. I never thought of Arthritis.

[Day_Tripper]

I still disagree.  You have 60 people who get a vaccine.  Of those 60 people 10 get a fever.  Of those same 60 3 get a rash.  It's the same 60 people.

Or to go back to the original numbers, 1 in 6 people get a fever and 1 in 20 get a rash.  1/6 = 17% 1/20 = 5% add that together and you get 22% of the people get a mild side effect from the vaccine, which is about 1 in 4 people.

[Mr. TOP SECRET]

This scares the shit out of me looking at you guys calculations. 

[lashmar]

I still disagree.  You have 60 people who get a vaccine.  Of those 60 people 10 get a fever.  Of those same 60 3 get a rash.  It's the same 60 people

It's not the same 60 people though. It’s two groups of 60 not one group of sixty. I know what I mean I just can’t put it into words. Fucking hell this was the last thing I did at school as well. Lol.

This scares the shit out of me looking at you guys calculations. 

You had more than three years secondary education this should be simple for you. lol.

[Day_Tripper]

Why is it a different group of sixty?

"There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics." 

[lashmar]

Why is it a different group of sixty?

One sec and I should have your answer.


Edit: Just e-mailed a 3rd party because I'm not smart enough to fight my point. lol. What makes you think it's a group of 60 people not two groups of 60 DT?